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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-03-08T20:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-03-08T20:00Z
CME Note: The origin of this arrival is unclear. It could also be from the signature in 193Å near disk center at 2016-03-08T03:50Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-03-11T04:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-03-12T20:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-03-09T01:36Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 430
Longitude (deg): W68
Latitude (deg): S18
Half-angular width (deg): 35

Notes: The MOSWOC ENLIL Ensemble suggests 4/24 members have a glancing blow later on Saturday 12th March (UTC). This may be concurrent with a CIR ahead of CH63, with the upper range of Kp values based on combined arrival.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence, based in part on analysis by Mark Seltzer

Lead Time: 35.32 hour(s)
Difference: -39.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2016-03-09T17:02Z

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